A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
